The latest edition of Penning Bull is about Jose Peraza’s quasi-breakout season in Cincinnati: the good, the not-as-good-as-it-looks, and the quietly-very-bad. Here’s an excerpt:
It’s very encouraging that he’s been able to make these changes without losing the ability to make contact at an above-average rate. In fact, Peraza remains one of the least strikeout-prone full-time hitters in the league, and pitchers struggle to miss his bat within the strike zone. On the other hand, he’s remained aggressive, and pitchers have remained largely unafraid of him. In what’s otherwise looked like a breakout campaign, he’s only gotten on base at a .332 clip. If he’d developed the ability to hit the ball harder, rather than to lift it more, his athleticism (and particularly his speed) might be put to a higher use, but as it is, he’s reached base at just a .314 clip on balls in play.
More importantly, despite nominally sticking at shortstop all season, he’s demonstrated pretty clearly that he’s a below-average defender at that position, and any movement in that talent level for a player finishing up his age-24 season is likely to be in the wrong direction. If this newfound power is the sort of thing he’ll have to fight to maintain, as pitchers adjust their approaches and opportunities to ambush pitches become scarce, then Peraza’s overall value dries up in a hurry. He’ll finish the season with a stout two or three wins in each formulation of WAR(P), but that overstates both the actual value he’s delivered and the value he’s likely to provide in years to come.
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